The Rams' recent slump and the AFC South's chaos: Our experts' insights from Week 13
Every Sunday, three NFL writers from The Athletic dissect the day's biggest news, plays, and performances.
As the season nears its climax, the top seeds in the NFC and AFC playoffs are the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots, with their coaches also favored for the NFL's Coach of the Year award. Could this be a Super Bowl showdown 40 years after the Bears' victory over the Patriots?
Following Week 13, heavyweights like the Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens suffered losses, while the once-promising Indianapolis Colts fell to the Houston Texans, creating a chaotic situation in the AFC South.
NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen, and Dan Pompei offer their insights on a week where playoff races intensified.
After the Texans' upset over the Colts and the Jaguars' dominant performance against the Titans, the AFC South now has three teams within a game of each other. Who's the favorite to claim the division?
Pompei: The Texans are the standout team in the division, boasting four consecutive wins, including a victory over the Colts. Their defense is arguably the league's best, a crucial asset in December. If C.J. Stroud can regain his 2023 form, the Texans would be the South's top contender. The Colts, despite their struggles, remind us of the challenge of maintaining peak performance over 17 games. The season finale between the Colts and Texans will decide the division.
Jones: I'm leaning towards the Jaguars. Despite Trevor Lawrence's inconsistencies, Liam Coen's team has several advantages. The Jaguars boast a leading rushing attack and an opportunistic defense, ranking among the top in takeaways. Their remaining schedule is favorable, with two games against the Colts, who have lost three of four. They also face the Jets, travel to Denver, and close the season against Tennessee. While Houston is on a winning streak, they might struggle to surpass the Jaguars. Indianapolis, without Daniel Jones, faces a challenging final stretch, with games against the Seahawks, 49ers, and another against Houston, plus two against Jacksonville.
Nguyen: I initially thought the Colts could shift to a defensive-focused identity with Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner locking down receivers. However, Gardner's early exit on Sunday allowed the Texans to create explosive plays in the pass game, securing their win. Jones' decline before his leg injury further impacted the Colts' offense. With his mobility compromised, the Colts will struggle. They'll face the Jaguars, and their performance will determine their playoff fate.
Both the Texans and Jaguars are finding their rhythm at the right time. The Texans' offense, despite limitations, is making significant gains in the passing game. With their defense, they have a strong chance of winning the South.
Just when we declared the Rams the NFL's best, they stumbled against the Carolina Panthers, losing 31-28. Did this setback shake your confidence in their Super Bowl prospects?
Nguyen: The Rams' consistent performance made a letdown inevitable. The Panthers deserve credit for their win, and their offensive line outperformed the Rams, even with injuries. The game's pivotal moments were Matthew Stafford's interceptions (one in the red zone and a pick-six) and his fourth-quarter fumble. Stafford's rare carelessness with the ball is unlikely to recur, so I remain confident in the Rams' future.
Jones: The Rams' performance was an anomaly, a rare off-day for a quality team. Stafford's interceptions and fumble were unexpected, especially after his record-breaking streak. The Rams' defense also struggled, giving up big plays without recording a takeaway. However, I still believe in the Rams. They'll overcome this setback and use it as a wake-up call, finishing strong and making a deep playoff run.
Pompei: Perhaps the Lombardi Trophy was prematurely awarded to the Rams? They've had an impressive run and remain a top team. However, the season is long, and setbacks happen. The Rams have quality wins, including against the Texans, Colts, Ravens, Jaguars, 49ers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers. Their success will be defined by December and January performances, and they hope, February. This season is wide-open, with no clear Super Bowl favorites. Wild surprises are on the horizon.
The Panthers, Lions, and Cowboys have varying playoff chances, according to The Athletic's Playoff Simulator. Who do you favor?
Pompei: The Lions, despite recent struggles, have a strong foundation. They've won 20 more games than the Panthers and eight more than the Cowboys over the past two seasons. While past performance isn't everything, the Lions' winning mentality is evident. The Cowboys have momentum, but five weeks could shift the dynamics. The bet is on the Lions, as we don't know how these teams will adapt in the final stretch.
Nguyen: The Panthers have a favorable schedule and a bye week to recover, but their inconsistent performance throughout the season is concerning. They can lose to the Saints after beating the Packers, and then face the Rams. I'm hesitant to trust them. The Cowboys' offense, led by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, is formidable. Their defense has improved with Quinnen Williams, but secondary weaknesses persist. With a favorable schedule after playing the Lions, I predict the winner of that game will secure a playoff spot.
Jones: The Panthers have surprised me with their upsets against the Rams and Packers, but their inconsistency is a concern. I don't see them surpassing the Buccaneers for the NFC South title. The Lions seem more well-rounded, but catching the Bears and Packers, who already have the season sweep, is challenging. The Cowboys, with recent wins and defensive improvements, are intriguing. They might have a shot at the division title. I favor the Cowboys for their potential.
Despite injuries, the 49ers remain competitive, winning 9-4 after a victory over the Browns. Could they be playoff contenders?
Jones: Absolutely. The 49ers' resilience is remarkable, having faced numerous injuries. They've proven they can compete with the best. With wins over the Rams and Seattle, they're a well-coached, balanced team. Their core players have significant playoff experience, which is crucial in the postseason. I won't count out the 49ers.
Nguyen: The 49ers' success depends on Brock Purdy's recovery from turf toe. His reduced mobility and arm strength, exacerbated by the injury, limit the offense's potential. The team needs an elite performance to compensate for defensive injuries, which won't happen until Purdy is closer to his pre-injury form. With playoff experience and brilliant coaches, Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh, the 49ers have a chance, but Purdy must improve.
Pompei: Significant injuries can impact teams over time. Shanahan and Saleh have managed weaknesses effectively, but challenges lie ahead. Teams like the 2001 Patriots, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants won Super Bowls despite injuries. The 49ers will need Christian McCaffrey to excel and Purdy to make clutch throws. It won't be easy, but they have potential.
