Predicting the Brewers' Future: Can ZiPS Projections Crack the Code?
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for 2026 are out, and they’ve got Brewers fans buzzing. But before we dive into the crystal ball, let’s take a step back and see how these projections fared last season. And this is the part most people miss: the Brewers are notoriously tricky to predict. Why? Because they’re the masters of finding hidden gems and squeezing value from players who haven’t yet hit their stride.
Last Season’s Hits and Misses
ZiPS had its fair share of both in 2025. The bullpen, for instance, was wildly undervalued. Remember when I called it 'absolute insanity' that not a single reliever was projected to have an ERA+ above 122? Well, five of them proved me right, surpassing that mark. Players like Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Jared Koenig all outperformed their projections by a mile. Even Freddy Peralta, projected for a 110 ERA+, finished with a stellar 154.
But it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. ZiPS overvalued players like Joey Ortiz and Garrett Mitchell, who struggled to meet expectations. And let’s not forget Vinny Capra, who was projected to be a solid utility player but ended up designated for assignment after a dismal performance.
The 2026 Projections: What to Watch
Now, onto the main event: 2026. ZiPS predicts a solid year for William Contreras, projecting him to return to his 2023-2024 form as one of the league’s best catchers. But here’s where it gets controversial: ZiPS is skeptical of Brice Turang’s offensive breakout, projecting him to regress to league average. Do you agree, or will Turang prove the system wrong?
In the outfield, Jackson Chourio is projected for a modest bump in productivity, but fans are hoping for a bigger breakout. Christian Yelich, on the other hand, is expected to regress slightly due to his age. But here’s the real question: Can the Brewers’ front office work their magic again and find unexpected stars, or will they need to make some mid-season moves to stay competitive?
Starting Pitchers: A Mixed Bag
ZiPS isn’t sold on Freddy Peralta building on his top-five Cy Young finish, projecting him for numbers similar to his 2022-2024 seasons. Jacob Misiorowski’s projection is surprisingly optimistic, considering his 4.36 ERA last season. And Brandon Woodruff? His health remains a wildcard, but ZiPS is cautiously optimistic about his innings.
Relief Pitchers: Predicting the Unpredictable
Predicting relievers is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle. ZiPS gives slight nods to Uribe and Megill after their strong 2025 seasons, but Aaron Ashby’s projection seems low, especially if he moves to the bullpen full-time. Here’s a thought-provoking question: With the Brewers’ history of bullpen surprises, who do you think will be the breakout reliever in 2026?
Final Thoughts
Szymborski admits the Brewers are a tough team to project, and it’s not just because of their depth. It’s their ability to adapt, to find solutions when things go off the rails. So, while we might not see an MVP or Cy Young winner emerge, we can expect the Brewers to have answers when challenges arise.
What do you think? Are ZiPS projections on the money, or will the Brewers defy the odds once again? Let’s hear your predictions in the comments!
